FT Wealth Management  

Friendshoring, nuclear buttons and a space race: what geopolitics is telling investors

  • To summarise the various factors pushing for deglobalisation
  • To be able to explain where there are pockets of growth
  • To list ways in which diversification can help shore up portfolios
CPD
Approx.40min
Q1 2024 figures show stronger demand than ever from Asia for physical gold. (World Gold Council)

According to World Gold Council figures for 2024, Chinese investment demand for physical gold, from both individual and institutional investors (including sovereign wealth funds) has grown 28 per cent to 280 tonnes.

While jewellery purchases in China and India have always been high, Asia overall has taken market share of gold bars away from the rest of the world. 

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Is this a sign of caution? Ought investors to go ultra bear, and protect their portfolios with 'haven' assets, such as a mixture of cash, sovereign bonds and physical gold?

Plassard says: "No, I'm not going to invest very heavily in gold. A little might be useful for diversification, but it's not a long-term growth strategy".

Husselbee agrees: "If you look at the long-term performance of gold versus equities, there's no contest.

"Yes, there's more political risk today than perhaps at any time in the past couple of decades, but I would still back equities for the long-term. Plus, gold has no income or yield in it to start with."

And then there is India

Husselbee says: "India is the biggest country demographically. It has sent men to the moon. It has nuclear capabilities and it has a vast, fast-growing middle class of big, global consumers. We are now looking at India overtaking China."

This means investors ought to be "in the front of the wave, rather than at the end of it", although the world's events have shown it is impossible for even the brightest economists to time the market right. 

That said, the investment case for India has caught the attention of asset allocators and investors alike, leading to demand for funds that invest in India and the Indian subcontinent.

For example, there are now four investment trusts investing primarily in India, compared with three for China, according to the Association of Investment Companies.

Philippa Douglas is assistant manager of the Evelyn Partners Sustainable MPS

Douglas says portfolio managers are taking more note of India's rising importance in the global economy. 

She says: "India’s rise to prominence is well appreciated by markets, with the value of Indian stocks hitting all time highs in 2023 and now frequently comes priced at a premium to other emerging markets."

India boasts a fast-paced and innovative technology sector, and the successful landing of Chandrayaan-3 on the Moon’s south pole has demonstrated to the world the strength of the country’s tech capabilities.

She adds: "Vibrant demographics and rising incomes have also seen domestically-oriented companies become common sights in portfolios.

"We have exposure to India in our Sustainable MPS through Alquity Future World fund, which has been increasing its weighting to the region recently and shares our preference for businesses focused on the Indian consumer as opposed to an international focus."