FT Wealth Management  

Friendshoring, nuclear buttons and a space race: what geopolitics is telling investors

  • To summarise the various factors pushing for deglobalisation
  • To be able to explain where there are pockets of growth
  • To list ways in which diversification can help shore up portfolios
CPD
Approx.40min

Whatever happens in the US, with Donald Trump and Joe Biden set for a rematch, Douglas says relations with China are sure to be in the spotlight as the two global giants clash on trade.

She says: "One of the few partisan areas the two presidential candidates are aligned on is taking a harder line on Chinese imports to the US, and I wouldn’t expect the current frost to thaw going into elections.

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"Biden has taken aim at Chinese steel, pushing suggesting a tripling of the current tariff rate, and the prior Trump administration slapped tariffs on c.$370bn of US annual imports."

Will investors be forced to pick sides, as governments seem minded to do?

John Husselbee, head of multi-asset at Liontrust, says: "On one side you have the US, which has its own independence - in terms of energy and food - and really does not need globalisation as much as perhaps other nations.

"On the other, you have China, which for many years has had a relationship with the US that has been in both nations’ interests, This is perhaps less so the case today, and with gaps appearing, other countries may feel they ought to pick sides. 

"I don't know whether governments want to choose one or the other; Europe wants to continue to supply to China, for example, but political tensions and threats of sanctions may force governments' hands."

Gold purchasing among rising powers

Regardless of trade tariffs or threats, China shows little sign of slowing down.

For example, although there were questions over manufacturing in China after its zero Covid policy, Chinese EV maker BYD briefly overtook Tesla as the top seller of electric vehicles globally last quarter, and aggressively low pricing make a BYD EV attractive for the average consumer, compared with Tesla.

Certainly, according to Husselbee, China's EV companies have European counterparts quaking in their boots.

Even if trade tensions with the US continue to be fraught post-election, Chinese EV companies will find a way to reach the US consumer. 

Husselbee explains that China has been looking to base itself in Mexico in order to supply the US - "if it's not friendshoring, it's certainly 'near shoring' and we're seeing more of that", he says. 

But while clean, green driving machines are spurring Chinese equities onwards, there is an overall sense of caution in the country.