Economy  

Wet weather causes UK economy to stall

Wet weather causes UK economy to stall
Today's figures could have dampened the Tory's re-election hopes, experts say (pexels/tonywuphotography)

GDP showed no growth in April 2024, despite a 0.4 per cent growth the month before, data from the Office of National Statistics revealed. 

According to the ONS, the lack of growth could be attributed to the wet weather that affected consumer spending. 

Although the services sector grew by 0.2 per cent in April 2024, this was offset by a fall in growth in both the production and construction sectors.

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Real gross domestic product did however grow by 0.7 per cent in the three months to April, compared with the three months to January 2024.

This comes after the UK economy exited its recession after growth was recorded in the first three months of the year. 

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said although the improved weather may boost May’s reading it will likely not be enough for the Bank of England to cut interest rates next week.

“Wage inflation remains elevated and consumer price inflation is expected to tick higher in the coming months, and thus the BoE won’t want to deviate from its strategy just yet.

“The election campaign has also seen Labour and the Conservatives putting forward proposals to increase economic growth in an incredibly restricted fiscal environment.

"Given tight public finances, it is unlikely substantial growth will be conjured up without significant additional borrowing, something neither party, nor the bond market, is particularly keen on. 

“With the result looking increasingly like a foregone conclusion, Labour will hope its plans to invest in ‘green’ jobs and infrastructure will help the economy break out of its current state of malaise, but without the necessary fiscal headroom this is likely to be an uphill struggle,” she added.

Rohit Kohli, director at the Mortgage Stop felt today’s figures delivered a “devastating blow” to the Conservative’s re-election hopes.

Sarwar Khawaja, chairman, executive board at the Oxford Business College said these GDP figures represented one of Rishi Sunak’s last rolls of the dice as he tries to prove that the economy has turned a corner before the election and “it looks like he’s rolled a one”.

He added: “The painful truth is that the UK economy has precious little momentum, weighed down by the cost of borrowing and stubbornly high inflation. With growth bumping along the bottom month after month, the outlook is far from rosy.  

"Time is running out for the government to convince the business community that its economic plan is working.” 

alina.khan@ft.com