Recent data purports to show that GLP-1 users eat less and eat healthier food. This has hit the share prices of all sorts of food and drink companies. But watch out. This data was from people with Type 2 diabetes, where GLP-1 drugs originated nearly 20 years ago.
These people have a serious medical condition because their body cannot cope with blood sugar spikes. Extrapolating data from such people to those who are merely overweight risks given a false impression.
There is no research to show that overweight people will take GLP-1 drugs and see lifelong changes to what they desire to eat and drink.
For the overweight population losing weight is hard. Any help is welcome. But losing even 20 per cent of your body weight where your BMI is more than 40 won’t leave you at normal risk. A healthy BMI is 24, losing 20 per cent of weight from a BMI of 40 would still leave a person with a BMI of 34.
So the idea that demand for bariatric surgery, cardiac care and even insulin pumps and glucose monitors will fall because of GLP-1 drugs makes no sense. The number of obese patients is growing faster than the number of patients on these drugs.
Added to this health problems from being obese are irreversible. Losing weight will improve health and quality of life, but it does not reset risk to ‘normal’.
This is because damage that obesity does to health is cumulative. For someone with joint damage who then loses weight, the wear and tear will slow but not reverse. Atherosclerosis (clogging of the arteries) is not reversible either (which is important for the long-term risk of vascular dementia or stroke), nor is kidney damage.
Insulin pumps are used mainly by Type 1 diabetic patients. How fat you are may impact how much insulin you need, but not the importance of delivering it when needed – a job best done by an insulin pump taking data from a continuous glucose monitor.
Prospective bariatric patients (those eligible for stomach stapling or gastric band surgeries) may try these obesity drugs before resorting to surgery. In the UK patients need to show commitment to losing weight before surgery. Obesity drugs can help patients get to the required pre-operation weight loss.
The idea that GLP-1 obesity drugs are the fix-all for numerous chronic and acute health conditions is wide of the mark. These health conditions will continue to grow and will thus continue to generate profits for healthcare companies.
The pharmaceutical and healthcare industries must continue to find ways to treat and, if possible, cure them. The healthcare investment industry has historically been very good at furnishing risk capital for this to happen.
