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Do elections matter for equity investors?

  • To be able to explain how equity fund managers think about political risk
  • To understand how particular sectors of the market are sensitive to election outcomes
  • To be able to explain why there may be volatility after particular election outcomes
CPD
Approx.30min

Some may also fear that he will be less constrained by constitutional and legal niceties than previous presidents and that the checks and balances will be strained – and this is a country with $35tn (£28tn) of national debt, a figure that is rising by the day. 

But these are the worries that are typical of equity investors pondering elections. 

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It is usually best, then, to rely on two questions: do the changed politics make much difference to the managers of my selected investments? The answer here tends to be ‘no’, from Microsoft to Louis Vuitton to Diageo, companies just get on running their businesses.  

And the second question is: do equity valuations overall leave markets with a large amount of downside in the event of a political shock or upset? Here I would say that equities, outside the magnificent seven, are solid value and could cope reasonably well with surprises.

So we continue to monitor the politics, have few expectations that political change will help our portfolios, but generally do not allow our election predictions to impact our portfolios.

Simon Edelsten is a former professional fund manager, who ran global equity mandates for 40 years

CPD
Approx.30min

Please answer the six multiple choice questions below in order to bank your CPD. Multiple attempts are available until all questions are correctly answered.

  1. Why does the author feel there could be volatility in the run up to the US presidential election?

  2. Which of the below sectors does the author say is "hardly affected" by election outcomes?

  3. What reason does the author give for believing equity markets can cope with political events this year?

  4. Which sector within equity markets does the author say has little impact on how politicians make decisions?

  5. Which sector does the author say is immune from the outcome of the UK election?

  6. What does the author say Biden and Trump seem to agree on?

Nearly There…

You have successfully answered all the questions correctly, well done!

You should now know…

  • To be able to explain how equity fund managers think about political risk
  • To understand how particular sectors of the market are sensitive to election outcomes
  • To be able to explain why there may be volatility after particular election outcomes

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