Long Read  

Amid the turmoil, is China a good investment?

But, as the past few days have indicated, things may get worse before they get better. The country developed its own vaccines, which are simply not as good as the Pfizer or Moderna offerings, and new variants have been spreading faster.

China will do anything to see a repeat of the early days of the pandemic and the winter months indicate more vigilance is on the way.

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Matthews Asia investment strategist Andy Rothman says the new policy direction was extremely clear but investors should expect a bumpy road to the end of lockdowns from here.

He says: “There will be more lockdowns in the coming months as well as reports of local officials failing to follow the new policy guidance. As a result, economic data is likely to remain weak through the winter.

"The end of lockdowns is not likely until the spring, which should be followed by a gradual economic recovery in the second half of the year.”

That uncertainty is reflected by the recent events. After an initial fall in markets on Monday (Nov 28) the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the CSI 300 (the 300 largest listed China A shares) started recovering some of their losses throughout the day.

A recent update from AllianzGI also pointed out that stocks seen as reopening beneficiaries – hotels, airlines, duty free shopping, Macau casino operators etc – were in positive territory for most of the day and generally rallied by 2 per cent to 3 per cent on average.

The firm added that the market's interpretation is that some type of “de facto reopening now appears at hand”.

With property construction driving more than 20 per cent of economic growth in recent years, this has further depressed economic activity and market earnings.

However, a further 16 measures were introduced on November 11 to help reinvigorate the residential property market.

The measures include credit support for debt-laden housing developers, financial support to ensure the completion and handover of projects to homeowners, and assistance for deferred-payment loans for homebuyers.

It is hoped the move will pre-empt a gradual recovery in home sales in 2023.

There is also hope that a recent meeting between President Xi and US President Joe Biden can quell the worsening geopolitical tensions between the two superpowers.

Both have commented on the success of the meeting and highlighted the need for increased dialogue between the advisers of both countries.

Although tensions are likely to remain high – particularly over Taiwan – it is hoped that the positivity from this meeting will not see tensions escalate further.

There is still plenty of volatility to come from both the Chinese government and the wider economy, but what we have seen in the past few weeks is an attempt to get the economy moving again and proof that it is open for business to foreign investors.